SEAatWAS
Two contrasting personnel stories. One early road test.
Seattle is 2–0 after holding New England and Arizona to 17 combined points. Washington is 0–2 after two NFC East losses and heads into its home opener with Marcus Mariota taking over for the injured Jayden Daniels. The matchup puts Brian Fleury's heavier Seattle offense opposite a Washington defense that just surrendered four Prescott touchdown passes.
Everyone's picks, plus the average of the scores submitted so far. The War Room model is tracked separately.
| 2025 net EPA edge for Seattle | +0.256 | 60% weight |
| 2026 net EPA edge, through Week 2 | +0.354 | 40% weight |
| Blended team rating adjustment | SEA +3.77 | EPA |
| Elo rating proxy (1643 vs 1427) | SEA +5.67 | public proxy |
| Washington home field | SEA −0.70 | assumption |
| QB adjustment · Darnold / Mariota | SEA +1.00 | confirmed |
| Projected margin | SEA +9.7 | updated |
Updated model estimate using the same team-efficiency and Elo framework, now with Sam Darnold confirmed as Seattle’s starter and Marcus Mariota starting for Washington. Darnold’s return removes the backup-quarterback downgrade from the earlier run.
Input data: 2026 SEA EPA, 2026 WAS EPA, Seattle public Elo, Washington public Elo, 2025 Washington rating, how the War Room model works.
“I love how Brian Fleury is getting the fullback involved more. During preseason I was on the phone with KC and told him I thought 21+ personnel was going to be big this year. I thought 13 personnel would have a role too. Seeing the early usage shift is exactly what I was hoping for.”
What interests me against Washington is what happens after we show the heavy look. Force a defense to respect the run, then make them defend JSN and the tight ends when the personnel stays on the field.
| 21 · 2 RB, 1 TE | 14.3% → 28.9% | +14.6 pp |
| 22 · 2 RB, 2 TE | 9.1% → 9.6% | +0.5 pp |
| 13 · 1 RB, 3 TE | 3.3% → 4.4% | +1.1 pp |
| 12 · 1 RB, 2 TE | 28.0% → 23.7% | −4.3 pp |
| 11 · 1 RB, 1 TE | 41.6% → 32.5% | −9.1 pp |
Personnel usage is from the 2025 versus early-2026 comparison chart. The reporting window is not specified.
Look for the fullback's role, not only his snap count. Lead blocker on first down, motion man before the snap, or a pass-game decoy? Those three uses force different defensive answers.
If Washington swaps into its base defense against 21, watch the immediate play-action matchup. If it stays in nickel, watch whether Seattle earns efficient runs. In 13 personnel, look for which tight end slips into the route and whether JSN's alignment creates space.
Ten triggers to watch while Seattle plays Washington, with Fleury's fullback and tight-end looks front and center.
Open the 10 things to watch ↓Built around what both teams showed through Week 2, with lineup questions clearly separated from confirmed news.
Washington starts with Mariota on schedule.
His first-read rhythm, particularly to Diggs and McLaurin.
Jayden Daniels' dislocated elbow changes the preparation. Mariota finished Week 2 11-of-16 for 111 yards and a touchdown. Seattle needs to disguise pressure without giving away underneath answers.
VERIFIEDWashington gets Diggs isolated against a corner.
How much help Seattle gives on third down and in the red zone.
Stefon Diggs caught five passes for 47 yards and two touchdowns in Dallas. The Commanders will still have receiving talent even without Daniels.
VERIFIEDMariota escapes contain on early downs.
The rush-lane integrity of Seattle's edges rather than raw sack totals.
Mariota moves well enough to punish abandoned edges. Keep him throwing from the pocket, especially if Washington runs bootlegs or movement passes.
AI READSeattle lines up a fullback with a tight end.
Whether Washington answers with base personnel and where the pass matchup opens.
The supplied usage chart has Seattle's 21 personnel at 28.9% in early 2026, up from 14.3% in 2025. Track who Washington puts on the field against the same looks.
DERIVEDFleury calls 13 personnel or adds an extra tight end.
Which eligible player becomes the overlooked route target after the run fake.
The chart shows 13 personnel up from 3.3% to 4.4%. The interesting piece is how the heavier group creates pass looks, not its total snap count alone.
DERIVEDWashington loads the box against the heavy looks.
JSN's alignment, motion and play-action opportunities outside.
JSN has 17 catches, 277 yards and four touchdowns through Week 2. Washington allowed Dak Prescott four touchdown passes last week. The offense still needs to protect its quarterback.
VERIFIEDSeattle sends pressure on second-and-long.
Whether simulated pressure changes Mariota's protection or leaves easy escape lanes.
Washington's Week 2 pass protection will be worth reviewing against Macdonald's fronts. The goal is to force a slower read while preserving coverage.
AI READWashington commits to the ground game.
How Seattle sets its front against Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White.
Washington ran for 182 yards at Dallas even in a loss. Seattle's first two opponents managed only 17 combined points; early run fits help keep the pressure package available.
VERIFIEDDarnold opens the game back under center.
How quickly Fleury gets back to the full offense, especially play action from 21 personnel and early-down shots to JSN.
Darnold practiced fully Thursday and Friday, has no game designation, and Mike Macdonald confirmed he will play. Seattle no longer has to build the plan around a backup quarterback.
VERIFIEDSeattle has a second-half lead.
Four-minute offense, possession time and Washington's remaining timeouts.
Against Arizona, Seattle finished a 16-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that consumed 10:14. Heavy personnel should help the offense close games while remaining unpredictable.
VERIFIED| JSN through Week 2 | 17 rec · 277 yds · 4 TD | SEA |
| Washington Week 2 rush yards | 182 | WAS |
| Prescott TD passes vs Washington | 4 | Week 2 |
Two-game team scoring totals are small samples. Raw points alone do not adjust for injuries, strength of schedule or game script.
Sam Darnold is back. Seattle and Washington have filed their Week 3 game-status updates.
| Sam Darnold QB · glute | STARTER Full participant Thursday and Friday; no game designation |
| Jadarian Price RB · chest | READY Full participant Friday; no game designation |
| Julian Love S · calf | OUT Did not practice Thursday or Friday |
| Ty Okada S · hamstring | OUT Will miss a third straight game |
| Brandon Pili NT · concussion/neck | QUESTIONABLE Limited Friday |
| Jayden Daniels QB · left elbow | OUT Marcus Mariota starts |
| Samuel Cosmi G · concussion/throat | OUT |
| Frankie Luvu LB · groin | OUT |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo TE · hamstring | OUT |
| Nick Cross S · illness | OUT |
Latest status: Seahawks Friday injury update.
Week 1: 22 points at Philadelphia and 132 rush yards.
Week 2: 20 points and 182 rush yards at Dallas. Daniels went 11-of-17 for 96 yards and a passing touchdown before injury. Mariota added 111 passing yards and a touchdown in relief.
Watch: Mariota's rollout game, early-down rushing and Diggs in scoring territory.
Through two games: 61 points allowed. Washington held Dallas to only 66 rushing yards but gave up 279 passing yards and four Prescott touchdowns.
Watch: Dan Quinn's front and the new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones' pressure looks, with linebackers Sonny Styles and Frankie Luvu.
| Stefon Diggs WR | Week 2 · 5 rec, 47 yards, 2 TD |
| Terry McLaurin WR | Week 2 · 2 rec, 50 yards |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB | Week 2 · 43 rush yards |
| Rachaad White RB | Part of Washington's backfield rotation |
| Sonny Styles LB | Track vs heavy sets and second-level play action |
Week 2: 31 points at Arizona. Drew Lock threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns. JSN scored all three receiving touchdowns, including an 82-yard catch and run.
Fleury watch: More 21 personnel gives Seattle another way to dictate who Washington puts on the field. Track the fullback's motion and the response to 13 personnel.
Two games: 17 points allowed. Arizona managed only 44 second-half yards, including late handoffs, and Seattle closed with a 16-play touchdown drive that took 10:14.
Watch: Contain against Mariota and coverage rotations that deny quick throws to Diggs.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 9 rec · 155 yards · 3 TD at Arizona |
| Leonard Williams DL | Week 2 · 6 tackles, 2 TFL, sack |
| Julian Love S | Interception in each of first two games |
| Sam Darnold QB | Practice return planned; Week 3 start not confirmed |
| JSN WR | How WAS handles routes from condensed formations |
| Fullback + tight ends Personnel | 21 and 13 looks create run/pass ambiguity |
| Leonard Williams / Byron Murphy DL | Interior discipline vs Mariota and Washington's ground game |
| Julian Love S | Pre-snap communication and late safety rotations |
| Marcus Mariota QB | Rhythm throws and designed movement |
| Stefon Diggs WR | Two TD against Dallas; red-zone detail |
| Terry McLaurin WR | Vertical route threat even after a slow statistical start |
| Sonny Styles / Frankie Luvu LB | How linebackers handle Seattle's heavy formations |
| Mike Sainristil CB | Coverage communication and slot matchups |
Seattle's personnel is the offensive coaching storyline. The heavy sets should not mean predictable runs. If Fleury uses the fullback to get Washington into its base package, play action and motion become the next test.
On the other sideline, watch whether Washington changes its pressure plan against Lock or Darnold. Seattle's answer depends on protection and the quarterback's comfort with changing the play.
Seattle's 2025 win at Washington featured a high-efficiency passing performance from Sam Darnold. The 2026 quarterback situation is different on both sidelines this week.
The first digit counts running backs and the second counts tight ends. In 21, one of the two running backs is often a fullback. In 13, Seattle puts three tight ends on the field.
This week: identify how Washington matches the package and whether Seattle turns the look into efficient rushing or a favorable play-action throw.
If 21 personnel goes from 14.3% to 28.9% of snaps, the increase is 14.6 percentage points. That is a different measure from its relative percent growth.
This week: the displayed chart's biggest shift is 21, with much smaller gains for 13 and 22.
The defense shows multiple possible rushers, then sends fewer than it threatens. The aim is to change the offense's protection identification while retaining coverage players.
This week: against Mariota, track whether Seattle's changing picture creates hesitation without losing contain.
Expected Points Added estimates how much a play changes a team's expected points relative to down, distance and field position. Two-game scoring totals and EPA tell different stories.
This week: EPA provides a second view of team performance alongside the points scored and allowed through Week 2.
A late-game possession focused on keeping the clock running while gaining enough first downs to protect a lead. Passing remains part of the approach when the defense sells out against the run.
This week: Seattle's 10:14 touchdown drive at Arizona is the template to watch when Fleury goes heavy late.